clarkatroid is not folding

When you start off playing cash you have to run well. You need to be running +EV. You have to get lucky and you need to avoid a routine downswing, and you need this break right at the beginning of your career.

Otherwise theres a huge possibility you'll drop out never to be seen again. In all likelyhood, if your a newbie and bit scared of playing cash poker like i was, you'll deposit once, all excited, give it a bash, and if you hit a 30 buy in downswing off the bat, which means getting your roll wiped out if you deposit $1500 bucks@
.25/.50. And that will be that. You will probably never make such a significant investment again. Ok you might deposit 50 bucks here and there and play a little at weekends, but the chances are you will be a recreational player for the rest of  your life.  The problem is, your not a good player as a cash newbie, no one is, and the chances of a bankroll inducing wipout are massively increased because of this. So when you combine the variance and lack of skill factor together, this is potent negative concoction and why the odds are stacked against anyone launching a succesfull career in cash poker.

Ive played over 2 million hands of cash poker in the last 36 months, and many more in other forms of poker previous to that and the one thing i have learned, but never totally embraced ,and that is.....Never understimate the power and ruthlessness of variance . At some point you will run worse than you ever dreamed was possible. Its mathematically unavoidable if you play enough hands.

No, you need to be one of the lucky ones at the start, either that or have the trust in what your reading here to give it another 1500 bucks, and another try. Which you probably dont, and i wouldnt blame you

What im trying to say is that there are potentially, almost definately, really really good players out there that never had the breaks in the infancy of their career that are needed to develop their talent. On the flip side, their are poor players who ran like usane bolt on acid at the start of their career and built up enough of a roll, and very importantly saved this roll, and are now part of an established online cash players infrastructure.

These less talented players are the rakeback grinders of the day, of 2009. They are players that make loads of errors, they have huge and obvious leaks, probably poor emotional control and tilt a lot, whatever,  but they play a shit ton of hands and break even/make a small profit/or loss. But when you add in the rakeback and they make a decent living. And this is the thing. Your average mid stakes less talented grinder makes a better living than the the average uk wage.

For example, if you play mid stakes and 50k hands a month, which is around abouts a 35-40 hour week if your 6 tabling, your rake will be circa 8k a month, and at these levels you should be able to achive 50% rakeback, which is 4k, circa £2400 pounds. Thats roughly the equivalent of a £50k a year salary. 50k a year for playing break even poker. Not too shabby, If it was lying in the street, youd bend down and pick it up! On top of that, most full time players do eek out at least a small profit

Same when i started, if lost my 20k, theres no way i would be repeating the exercise. Im too much of a bankroll nit to risk losing that amount again.  In retrospect, i realise i was very lucky to hit the ground running, with the negative spells of luck occurring later on, at a time when ive won plenty and im mentally, emotionally and financially ready to tackle a downswing

The first thing i did was join the 2p2 forum, which has been an invaluable source of learning. Thats where the true poker heavyweights are at, so its a bit of an e-dick waving forum at times, well mostly, but its not an understatement to say it was the most critical part of my progress. Its where you can post a hand and people better than you get to call you an idiot for playing like a retard, and then they tell you how to play it in the most plus EV way. And its free. great.

This particular thread is the most visited webpage on my PC for over the last 2/3 years-

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/

And these are the significant threads of my time on 2p2 -
This thread is when i took a shot at 10/20 and posted the hand, and got put in my place by the high stakes boys - I can still remember the hand and where i played it incorrectly. Each post i made in the strat sections brought me on a little bit more as a player
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/high-stakes-pl-nl/msnl-player-taking-another-shot-308240/

This was when i was worried about that game, and my most popular thread, it obviously triggered a nerve with my peers
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/msnl-doomswitch-18-months-counting-285694/

this was how i ran in year 1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/6-max-msnl-ok-so-im-bad-reg-but-still-nailing-209146/

this is how much regs earn -
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/mid-stakes-living-431696/

this was my lesson in not playing drunk
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/beat-7-pints-stella-later-287736/

this got shit tons of replys
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/there-any-uk-cash-players-out-there-185880/

this was earlier this year when i collected 1 million databased hands
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/1-year-1-million-hands-519211/

a good stats thread that helped me immensely
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/6-max-winrate-lossrate-position-467019/

after i won a few quid in a live game -
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/poker-beats-brags-variance/how-i-roll-bitchez-337495/

 my take on the top grinder
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/most-successful-msnl-player-322986/

on how lazy grinders are
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/grinding-your-little-bollocks-off-310917/

A hand
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/do-you-think-im-sexy-320617/

on different playing styles
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/can-you-winning-player-playing-25-8-a-320353/

on variance
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/56/medium-stakes-pl-nl/your-biggest-downswing-msnl-453130/

So i put in some time and effort in the strategy sections on forums, i watched some videos and i grinded 3 or tables on my laptop. I ended up 6 tabling quite soon and started to make some serious candy. |At the beginning of this year i invested £3500 in a proper set up, and converted the spare bedroom into my office ,complete with 2x30 inch monitors, nice desk and chair. All of a sudden i had the technical gear to play 24 tables with no overlap, and i pushed myself to play as many as i could, which was a mistake in hindsight and this has hit my winrate earlier this year. The decisions were coming too fast, i was timing out with premium hands etc. Now i play 10 or 11 as a maximum

I gradually lost interest in mtts and sngs

I started off playing taggy at around 19/15 and these days i play a bit looser, circa 24/19 ish. And thats about it, i dont know anything strategy wise that hasnt already been said. I never sit down working out complicated math, dont discuss hands with anyone, i just play off instincts. But i would say that bankroll mgt and emotional control are the 2 most underated skills, and i still havent got to grips with the latter

My winrate is slowing down, this year ive had 3 break even months where as 08 i had only had 1 losing month. How long will it last? who knows, i do feel like im a better player this year but i still have some balancing and tilt issues that i need to work on.

I now have 290k strewn across 8 different sites, but i dont really play higher than 5/10, so i feel like im established now, and not going anywhere soon. But i do need to improve and step up my game next year as its getting harder and harder to make a living.

This is my life graph. It only dates back from june 08 though as i lost my database prior to that



In 5 years time, in an ideal world, i hope to have made enough money to quit playing but this is a fast changing industry and who knows what the future holds.

happy new year all